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The National Academies

NCHRP 25-25/Task 22 [Completed]

Land Use Forecasting for Indirect Impacts Analysis
[ NCHRP 25-25 (Research for the AASHTO Standing Committee on the Environment) ]

  Project Data
Funds: $99,999
Research Agency: Parsons Brinckerhoff
Principal Investigator: Uri Avin
Effective Date: 8/24/2005
Completion Date: 3/1/2007

Overall, there is also a gulf between the findings of a few researchers on indirect land use effects, published primarily in scholarly journals, and the world of packaged models used by MPO and state DOT practitioners. These models generally do not incorporate the findings of these studies. The more advanced modeling is impervious to induced travel demand and its related land use effects and is usually used in regional transportation systems-level planning work rather than project impact evaluation work.  Furthermore, such approaches lack the ability to absorb policy-type directives, an important component of indirect land use effects analyses.

The research team used both primary and secondary sources to describe the state of the practice for forecasting indirect land-use impacts. Secondary source materials referenced included academic and professional journal articles as well as existing guidance documents. Guidance documents put out by state and federal agencies, research organizations, and other entities are important indicators of the state of the art of conducting indirect land use impact studies. Those guidebooks help to define the state of the practice across the country as various agencies and practitioners implement the methods and techniques these studies advocate. Chapter 3 synthesizes the ideas, techniques, and recommendations from these guidance documents.

 

Chapter 4 presents the six approaches in more detail, and includes selected material on planning judgment and collaborative judgment from good, recent guidebooks, as amended through the research and experience of the authors.

The final report  and appendices can be downloaded here. 

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